智通财经网·2025-10-17 03:07Core Viewpoint - The domestic recycled aluminum industry is currently fragmented with low recycling utilization levels, but policies are expected to strengthen, promoting the improvement of the recycling system and transitioning from a "small and scattered" model to "scale," thereby unlocking the potential of urban mining [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Potential - The recycled aluminum industry chain is short with high recovery value, becoming an important growth driver for China's aluminum supply [1] - The production of recycled aluminum in China is projected to reach approximately 10.5 million tons in 2024, accounting for about 19% of total aluminum supply, with a CAGR of 13% expected from 2024 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Resource Security and Domestic Supply Chain - The demand for resource security is increasing, and recycled aluminum is key to addressing the high dependence on imported bauxite, with over 77.6% reliance on imports from January to August 2025 [2] - The main source of raw materials for recycled aluminum is domestic waste aluminum, which is expected to account for over 80% of the recycling volume in 2024 [2] Group 3: Environmental Impact and Market Dynamics - The carbon emissions from producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum are approximately 11.2 tons, while recycled aluminum only emits 0.23 tons, representing 2.1% of the emissions from electrolytic aluminum production [3] - The inclusion of the aluminum smelting industry in the national carbon market by 2025 is expected to tighten quotas and increase carbon prices, enhancing the green premium for recycled aluminum products [3] Group 4: Recycling System Development - The potential of urban mining is significant, and the construction of the recycling system is accelerating, supported by policies and initiatives from state-owned enterprises and key companies [4] - The introduction of tax policies and the establishment of a national recycling platform are expected to alleviate raw material bottlenecks, especially as vehicle scrappage is anticipated to peak around 2026 [4]