大盘震荡，红利登场，关注煤炭ETF（515220）

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is gaining attention due to rising prices and increased demand expectations driven by a cold winter forecast, with specific ETFs showing significant gains [1][3][4]. Market Performance - The coal ETF (515220) rose by 2.97% on October 16, with a five-day change of 7.28% [1][2]. - Other ETFs, including the Dividend Hong Kong ETF (159331), Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720), and Hong Kong State-Owned Enterprise ETF (159519), also reported gains [1][2]. Weather Impact - A strong cold front has swept across northern China, causing temperature drops exceeding 10°C, leading to heating supply activation and increased coal demand [2][3]. - Major cities are expected to experience their lowest temperatures of the year during the period from October 15 to 19 [2]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The China Electricity Council anticipates that electricity consumption growth in the second half of the year will exceed that of the first half, with a projected 5%-6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption for 2025 [3]. - The coal market is expected to see a rebound in prices due to reduced supply and increased winter demand, with coal production expected to slightly decline and imports projected to decrease by about 16% [3]. Policy and Market Sentiment - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced measures to regulate price competition, which may stabilize market prices and reduce internal competition [3]. - The coal sector is viewed as having both cyclical and dividend attributes, with current low holdings indicating a potential investment opportunity as fundamentals improve [4].