美国关税创上世纪30年代以来新高，各国如何重塑国际贸易版图？｜全球贸易观察

Group 1 - The average effective tariff rate faced by American consumers is currently 17.9%, the highest level since 1934 [1] - The Trump administration's tariffs on goods such as pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks are contributing to this increase [1] - Global economic resilience is noted despite the impact of protectionist policies, with the WTO and IMF slightly raising their global growth forecasts for 2025 [1][4] Group 2 - The tariffs are projected to increase price levels by 1.7% in the short term, resulting in an average income loss of $2,400 per American household by 2025 [3] - Significant price increases are expected for leather products (36%) and clothing (34%) in the short term, with long-term increases of 12% and 11% respectively [3] - The tariffs are anticipated to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 0.4 percentage points in 2026, leading to a long-term economic contraction of $125 billion annually post-2024 [3] Group 3 - U.S. manufacturing output is expected to grow by 2.7%, but this growth will come at the expense of other sectors, with construction and agriculture projected to decline by 3.7% and 0.3% respectively [4] - Despite the trade war, global trade is expected to remain robust, with the WTO revising its global goods growth forecast for 2025 to 2.4% [4] - Trade patterns are shifting, with countries like Canada importing more cars from Mexico than the U.S., and China sourcing soybeans from South America instead of the U.S. [4] Group 4 - The shipping and logistics sectors are adapting to these changes, with companies seeking alternative markets due to U.S. trade barriers [5] - The global trade landscape is being redrawn, with predictions of increased bilateral trade agreements among nations [5][6] - European nations are actively pursuing trade agreements with markets such as Mercosur and Indonesia, and discussions are ongoing regarding closer ties with the CPTPP [6][7]