为本月加息“留门”！日本央行行长最新发言未排除加息可能性

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, may continue tightening monetary policy if confidence in achieving economic targets increases, indicating a potential for interest rate hikes in the short term [1] - Ueda plans to gather information during ongoing international meetings and will evaluate data before the monetary policy meeting scheduled for October 29-30 [1] - Financial markets currently estimate a 17% chance of the Bank of Japan taking action this month, down from 68% a few weeks ago, reflecting political uncertainty and recent leadership changes [2] Group 2 - Political instability, including the withdrawal of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition, complicates the situation and diminishes the prospects for policy normalization in the short term [2] - The persistent weakness of the yen may pressure the Bank of Japan to act before inflation worsens, although Ueda did not specifically address the impact of domestic political instability on policy decisions [2] - Ueda highlighted that the effects of tariffs are expected to manifest slowly, with many institutions still incorporating tariff factors into their economic forecasts [3]