非银存款下半年首现负增长，“存款搬家”进程暂缓？

Core Viewpoint - The process of "deposit migration" has shown signs of slowing down, with significant divergence in the deposit structure between household deposits and non-bank financial institution deposits in September [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Changes - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 760 billion yuan, marking the first time in the second half of the year that monthly household deposits exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2][4]. - Conversely, non-bank deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97 trillion yuan, representing the first negative growth in monthly non-bank deposits in the second half of the year [2][4]. Group 2: M1 and M2 Growth - The structural changes in deposits have led to a rise in M1 (narrow money) and a decline in M2 (broad money), with M1's year-on-year growth rate at 7.2%, up from 6% in August, while M2's growth rate fell to 8.4% from 8.8% [8][9]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to -1.2%, indicating increased market liquidity as households and enterprises are more inclined to convert time deposits into demand deposits for immediate spending [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The decline in non-bank deposits is attributed to multiple factors, including last year's high base effect, fluctuations in the equity market, and adjustments in asset management products [5][6]. - The recent high volatility in the equity market has led to a temporary halt in the "migration" of household deposits into the stock market, suggesting a reallocation of assets rather than a permanent shift [6][7].