美联储降息路径内部分歧加剧

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar continues to weaken, with the dollar index reported at 98.182, down 0.17%, as the market anticipates upcoming economic data that may influence dollar fluctuations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The US economy is facing a complex situation with both a weak labor market and inflationary pressures as the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaches in October 2025 [1] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about the labor market while maintaining a relatively optimistic view on inflation caused by trade tariffs [1] - Waller, a potential successor for the Fed chair, supports gradual rate cuts, while other officials advocate for more aggressive actions, highlighting internal divisions within the Fed regarding future economic paths [1][2] Group 2: Employment Data Concerns - Waller emphasized the reliance on private sources for employment data due to the government shutdown, which has led to inconsistent signals but an overall "clear warning" regarding the labor market [2] - He supports a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which would lower the policy rate from the current range of 4.00% to 4.25% [2] Group 3: Dollar Index Technical Analysis - The dollar index has fallen below the key level of 98.714, which has now become a resistance level, with the next important support at 98.238 and a critical level at 98.033 [3] - Since reaching a multi-month high of 99.563 on October 9, the dollar index has been on a downward trend, indicating potential for increased market volatility as it approaches long-term trend indicators [3] - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified between 98.55 and 98.60, with significant support levels at 98.15 to 98.20 and 98.00 to 98.05 [3]