国际不动产市场周期修复与中国市场的均衡重塑

Core Insights - The current real estate market in China is at a cyclical low, facing severe challenges, with a lack of consensus on the core pricing benchmarks for real estate assets [1] - The restructuring of the real estate cycle is fundamentally achieved through the price formation mechanism, which is driven by the micro-level interactions between supply and demand [1] International Insights - Asset management institutions play a crucial role in market restructuring, as evidenced by the cyclical nature of real estate prices in mature economies [2] - The U.S. has experienced significant crises that led to the emergence of new financial instruments like CMBS and REITs, which reshaped the market landscape [4][5] - The shift from "subject credit" to "asset credit" in the U.S. real estate market highlights the importance of institutions that can efficiently connect physical assets with financial markets [5][6] Implications for China's Real Estate Market - The current inventory pressure in China is substantial, with an estimated 4 billion square meters of inventory and a potential de-stocking period of up to 5 years [13] - The rental yield in major Chinese cities is approximately 1.8%, which is significantly lower than historical levels in the U.S. and Japan during their respective crises [14][15] - A new pricing anchor based on rental yield rather than price-to-income ratios is suggested to better reflect asset value [12][13] Future Price Evolution - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 0.5% reduction in expected price growth could lead to a 22% decline in property prices, while a 1% reduction could result in a 36% decline [16] - The need for a balanced market is emphasized, requiring measures to lower interest rates, reduce risks, and enhance rental yields [16] Commercial Real Estate Market Dynamics - There is a significant gap between primary and secondary market valuations in China's commercial real estate, indicating a disconnect in asset pricing [17] - Historical examples from the U.S. suggest that innovative risk-sharing mechanisms can help restore market confidence during downturns [17] Asset Price Cycle Reconstruction - The restructuring of the real estate cycle necessitates a shift from traditional developer-led models to a new financial ecosystem involving specialized asset management institutions [18][19] - The creation of a new type of real estate asset management institution is essential for developing a complete ecosystem that includes private equity funds, REITs, and effective exit strategies [19] Policy Recommendations - The core objective should be to convert excess inventory into new demand through market mechanisms, addressing the mismatch between supply structure and diverse demand [20] - A market-oriented approach to asset acquisition and transformation is recommended, leveraging professional asset management institutions to mitigate risks [20][21] - Financial innovations and exit mechanisms must be synchronized to ensure sustainable participation from market entities [21][22]