猪价超预期下跌，能繁去化或加速，养殖ETF(516760) 跌幅收窄至0.29%

Core Viewpoint - The livestock ETF (516760) experienced a slight decline of 0.29% in early trading on October 17, with key component stocks showing modest gains, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market amid ongoing pressures in the pig farming sector [1] Industry Summary - In September, the increase in pig output coincided with a drop in prices, with the average selling price of live pigs projected to be 13.10 yuan/kg in September 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.86% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.90% [1] - The slaughter volume in September 2025 was recorded at 4.5608 million heads, showing a month-on-month increase of 5.12% and a year-on-year increase of 4.05% [1] - The completion rate of planned pig output in September was 96.50%, with a planned increase of 5.14% in October compared to actual output in September [1] - The ongoing decline in pig prices is exacerbating losses in pig farming, with short-term price pressures expected to persist, although there may be a stabilization after significant declines [1] - The policy focus is shifting towards "anti-involution," with expectations that the supply side will contract, potentially leading to a revaluation of quality pig farming companies [1] Company Summary - The livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Livestock Breeding Index is 14.31 times, which is below the 19.22% percentile over the past three years, indicating a historical low valuation [1] - Given the current industry conditions at the bottom of the cycle, there is a sufficient safety margin, and the anticipated policy changes may enhance the profitability and stability of leading pig farming companies [1]