IEA下调全球可再生能源增长预测

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global renewable energy growth forecast for 2030 down by 248 gigawatts compared to last year [1] - Despite continued growth in photovoltaic (PV) power, the expectations for the US and China have begun to slow [1] - The IEA now expects global renewable energy installed capacity to grow by 4600 gigawatts by 2030, down from the previous forecast of 5500 gigawatts for the next six years [1] - PV power is projected to account for approximately 80% of this incremental growth [1] Summary by Category US and China Market Dynamics - The renewable energy growth forecast for the US has been cut by nearly 50%, primarily due to the cancellation of federal tax incentives and other regulatory measures [1] - China's shift from fixed pricing to competitive bidding has also pressured project economics [1] - Strong growth in other regions partially offsets the downward revisions in the US and China [1] Emerging Markets - India is expected to become the second-largest growth market for renewable energy globally, following China [1] - Geothermal power capacity in the US, Japan, Indonesia, and other emerging markets is anticipated to reach historical highs [1] - Pumped storage generation is expected to grow by 80% over the next five years compared to the past five years [1] Market Concentration - The IEA notes that PV power and rare earth supply chains remain concentrated in China, with expectations that China's market share in key areas will exceed 90% by 2030 [1]