中金：淡旺季拐点来临 供需趋向紧平衡

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has seen a cumulative increase of 6.9% since the National Day holiday, driven by improved industry profitability in Q3, tightening supply expectations for Q4, and increased attention on the sector due to its defensive attributes amid rising geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance and Profit Recovery - In Q3, coal prices rebounded, aiding in the recovery of industry profits, with prices for North Port 5500 kcal thermal coal and coking coal at 674 CNY/ton and 1,555 CNY/ton respectively, up from the lows of 638 CNY/ton and 1,337 CNY/ton in Q2 [1] - The total profit of the coal mining and washing industry from January to August decreased by 53.6% year-on-year to 193.7 billion CNY, with August's profit at 27.1 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 40% but a month-on-month increase of 55%, indicating significant improvement [1] Group 2: Seasonal Demand and Price Support - Mid-October typically marks the turning point between the peak and off-peak seasons for thermal coal, with winter storage demand expected to strengthen as the heating season approaches, supporting thermal coal demand [2] - The recent trend of "anti-involution" in the downstream power sector is expected to stabilize electricity prices, which in turn will help support coal prices [2] Group 3: Supply Dynamics and Import Levels - The Ministry of Emergency Management plans to conduct annual safety inspections in November and December, which is expected to maintain a steady production pace in major coal-producing regions, with a continued expectation of domestic supply contraction [3] - While improved demand may keep coal imports at high levels, the current price inversion between domestic and international mid-to-high calorific thermal coal may impose some constraints on further import growth [3] Group 4: Q4 Supply and Demand Outlook - Following the National Day holiday, coal prices have continued to rise, with North Port 5500 kcal thermal coal and coking coal prices reaching 728 CNY/ton and 1,660 CNY/ton respectively, surpassing the average prices of Q1 [4] - The coal supply and demand are expected to trend towards a tight balance in Q4, which is favorable for continued price increases and further recovery in coal company profitability [4]