10月华北持续降雨或将利多东北优质玉米 明年二三季度东北玉米价格存上涨空间

Core Viewpoint - The new season corn supply is increasing as it enters October, leading to a significant price drop, particularly in North China due to continuous rainfall affecting quality and supply reliance on Northeast corn [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The new season corn from Northeast China is of higher quality and quantity compared to last year, with a potential price increase of up to 200 yuan/ton expected in the second and third quarters of next year [1][8]. - In early October, the average price drop for corn in Northeast and North China was 161 yuan/ton and 46 yuan/ton respectively, with a national average price of 2181 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.05% decrease from late September [1][3]. - The price difference between North and Northeast China reached 200 yuan/ton, allowing Northeast corn to be sold in North China [3][6]. Market Dynamics - Continuous rainfall in North China has led to a slowdown in corn harvesting and a decline in quality, resulting in reliance on Northeast corn to meet feed demand [3][5]. - The transportation costs for Northeast corn are decreasing, enhancing its competitiveness in external markets, with reductions of 25%-50% reported for various routes [6][8]. - The market is expected to experience downward pressure on prices in the fourth quarter due to an increase in supply and low-quality corn needing to be digested by deep processing enterprises [6][8].