贸易政策及高库存 菜籽粕期货维持偏弱震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for oilseeds is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in canola meal futures, which are influenced by trade policies and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola meal futures opened at 2366.00 CNY/ton and experienced a decline, with a maximum of 2376.00 CNY and a minimum of 2308.00 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 2.24% [1]. - As of October 16, the average spot price for canola meal was reported at 2533.68 CNY/ton, which is 169.68 CNY/ton higher than the futures price [1]. Group 2: Export and Inventory Data - According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola seed exports increased by 97.8% to 159,200 tons for the week ending October 12, compared to 80,500 tons the previous week [1]. - On October 16, the number of canola meal futures warehouse receipts was 8,699, a decrease of 390 from the previous trading day [1]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures indicates that trade policies and high inventory levels are creating mixed factors for canola meal, suggesting a range-bound market [2]. - Ruida Futures notes that the lack of substantial progress in China-Canada trade negotiations will limit canola seed imports in Q4, while the demand for canola meal may decline due to reduced aquaculture needs and the availability of soybean meal as a substitute [2].