


Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a "first decline, then rise" trend in the fourth quarter, with short-term fluctuations due to a lack of incremental positive factors, but potential upward support from easing tariff issues, new economic policies, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market are anticipated due to a lack of new positive factors [1] - Marginal positive factors expected to accumulate include: 1) Continuous innovation breakthroughs in China's technology sector; 2) Low probability of high tariffs being implemented, leading to potential easing of China-U.S. tariff issues; 3) Discussions on the "15th Five-Year Plan" at the Fourth Plenary Session, boosting risk appetite; 4) Ongoing strengthening of expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - In the medium to long term, a "dual easing" policy from China and the U.S. is expected to drive continuous capital inflow, improving fundamentals and profit expectations, leading to a slow bull trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - The "four offensive" sectors include: 1) Non-ferrous metals driven by U.S. dollar depreciation, low interest rates, and liquidity; 2) Technology stocks benefiting from rapid advancements in AI and high demand in new industries; 3) Power sector focusing on themes like controllable nuclear fusion and equipment exports; 4) Insurance sector with improved equity investment returns due to rising stock markets [2] - The "two bottom warehouse" strategy is suitable for long-term investment and risk aversion, focusing on: 1) "Dilemma reversal" strategy in essential consumption sectors showing initial supply-demand turning points; 2) High dividend strategy with a stable dividend yield of 6.29% in the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index, driven by increasing demand for "fixed income+" products [2]