基本面未有根本改善 纯碱期货盘面继续底部盘整

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a decline in production and prices, with inventory levels increasing, indicating potential supply pressures and a cautious demand outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory - Chongqing Heyou Industrial has reduced operations at its 400,000 tons/year soda ash facility, while Tangshan Sanyou is operating at about 70% capacity at its 2.3 million tons/year facility. Shandong Haitai has resumed production at its 1.5 million tons/year facility [1]. - As of October 16, 2025, total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.7005 million tons, an increase of 15,900 tons from the previous Monday, reflecting a rise of 0.94% [1]. - This week, domestic soda ash production was reported at 740,500 tons, a decrease of 30,300 tons, representing a decline of 3.93% [1]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - As of this week, the mainstream price range for light soda ash is between 930-1,600 RMB/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 940-1,480 RMB/ton. Most regions have seen price declines between 10-85 RMB/ton, with the northwest region experiencing a significant drop of 7.98% for heavy soda ash [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the current spot prices for soda ash are stable, with a slight decrease in supply but an increase in inventory. Demand remains steady, but market sentiment is cautious, leading to a lack of new drivers in the futures market [2]. - Galaxy Futures notes that while soda ash production has slightly decreased, inventory accumulation indicates supply pressure. Despite a drop in futures prices, transaction volumes have increased, suggesting that the fundamental situation has not fundamentally improved, and policy uncertainties persist [3].