五矿证券：印尼打击锡矿走私供给持续紧张 AI浪潮下锡价长期看好

Group 1 - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto announced the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines and the blocking of smuggling channels, impacting the global tin supply market [1] - Indonesia is the second-largest producer of tin concentrate and refined tin, with an estimated production of 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of global tin production [1] - The crackdown primarily affects small to medium-sized private smelters reliant on illegal mines, potentially exacerbating global tin supply tightness [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has reverted the RKAB approval process from a three-year to an annual basis, effective from 2026, to promote compliance and efficiency in the tin industry [2] - The production recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is below expectations, with only about 1,200 tons exported in August [2] - Tin smelting companies are under pressure as processing fees for tin concentrate have dropped to their lowest levels in three years [2] Group 3 - AI servers consume significantly more tin than traditional servers, with Nvidia's NVL72GB300 server consuming approximately 4.71 kg of tin per unit [3] - The global demand for tin from AI servers is projected to grow at an annual rate of 44.5% from 2025 to 2030, potentially reaching 34,000 tons by 2030 [3] - The limited new tin supply capacity, coupled with growth in emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy, supports a positive long-term outlook for tin prices [3]