中国外汇投资研究院：日本央行迎来新挑战

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if Kishi Sanae is elected as Prime Minister, she may reshape Japan's economic policy direction, focusing on fiscal stimulus rather than monetary tightening to control inflation [1][2] - Kishi's policy framework consists of three pillars: enhancing national crisis management through investment, implementing expansionary fiscal policies while avoiding new government bond issuance, and clarifying the government's responsibility for monetary policy while allowing the Bank of Japan autonomy in tool selection [1] - Kishi has adopted a more cautious stance in her campaign, avoiding past statements on cutting consumption tax or opposing interest rate hikes, indicating a shift in policy approach [1] Group 2 - Kishi's potential election poses new challenges for the Bank of Japan, as she expressed concerns about rising interest rates impacting corporate investment and young people's mortgage burdens, which may act as a resistance to rate hikes [2] - If the yen continues to weaken under "Sanae Economics" or if the stock market rises, the timing for interest rate hikes could be advanced to December, despite potential political and fiscal uncertainties [2] - Kishi's victory is likely to lead to a sustained weakness of the yen, which may cause the Bank of Japan to adopt a wait-and-see approach even if economic data supports a more hawkish stance [2]