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开源证券:猪价超预期下跌 能繁去化或加速
智通财经网·2025-10-17 08:33

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a continued decline in pig prices, leading to increased losses in pig farming, with expectations of short-term price stabilization after significant drops [1][4]. Group 1: Pig Price Trends - The national average selling price of live pigs in September 2025 was 13.10 yuan/kg, down 4.86% month-on-month and 30.90% year-on-year [1]. - The slaughter volume in September 2025 was 4.5608 million heads, an increase of 5.12% month-on-month and 4.05% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of 7kg piglets fell to 183 yuan/head as of October 10, 2025, down 110 yuan/head year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in the piglet market [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the market decreased to 4.91% as of October 9, 2025, down 0.16 percentage points week-on-week and 0.79 percentage points year-on-year, suggesting a tightening supply of large pigs [2]. - The price difference between lean and fat pigs was 3.97 yuan/kg as of October 9, 2025, down 0.13 yuan/kg month-on-month and 1.01 yuan/kg year-on-year, indicating weaker demand [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Financial Performance - The average loss per head for self-bred pigs in September 2025 was 7.27 yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss due to declining prices [4]. - The total number of pigs sold by 12 listed pig companies in September 2025 was 13.7749 million heads, an increase of 22.47% year-on-year [5]. - The average selling prices for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with declines ranging from 3.4% to 9% across different companies [6].