Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic and international political and economic environment affecting the capital market will remain consistent with the trends observed in the third quarter, but with increased uncertainties leading to potential volatility in the fourth quarter [1] - The domestic economy is expected to meet its annual growth target, and there is a possibility of slight fiscal policy adjustments in response to the macroeconomic landscape for next year [1] - The overall landscape regarding US-China tariffs is not expected to change significantly, but the US government may impose industry-specific tariffs that could indirectly pressure China's exports [1] Group 2 - The significant gains in the equity market during the third quarter, combined with increasing uncertainties, suggest that volatility may rise in the fourth quarter [1] - If market risk appetite is suppressed, defensive sectors with dividend attributes may present short-term performance opportunities [1] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and its key agenda, the "14th Five-Year Plan," are expected to have a profound impact on China's industrial landscape and may create new investment opportunities [1] Group 3 - The initiation of a new interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to weaken the dollar, potentially leading to a global asset revaluation [2]
长城基金杨建华：四季度波动或加大 政策与国际局势成关键变量
Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-10-17 08:42