国际观察｜美国政府“停摆”还要多久

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with significant impacts on public services and the economy, as bipartisan negotiations remain stalled [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Impact - The shutdown has affected various sectors, including air transportation and public services, leading to uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook [2] - Approximately 750,000 federal employees in non-essential positions have been placed on unpaid leave, while hundreds of thousands of essential employees are working without pay [2] - The absence of air traffic controllers has resulted in 53% of flights being delayed, compared to a normal rate of 5% [2] - Key economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has been delayed, increasing uncertainty for policymakers and investors [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The core reason for the prolonged shutdown is the impasse between the two parties over healthcare spending, with both sides using the situation to advance their political agendas [4][5] - The Trump administration is reportedly using the shutdown to streamline government operations, potentially leading to the elimination of over 10,000 federal positions [4] - The Democratic Party is leveraging the shutdown to strengthen internal unity ahead of the midterm elections, as they seek to rally support against the Republican agenda [4] Group 3: Long-term Consequences - Analysts predict that the shutdown could become a prolonged battle, potentially exceeding the previous record of 35 days [6][7] - The longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the impact on the manufacturing sector and the risk of permanent talent loss in the technology sector [7] - The shutdown is damaging the U.S. national image, eroding public confidence in government effectiveness and leadership capabilities [7]