智通财经网·2025-10-17 08:50Core Viewpoint - Both Ford and General Motors are expected to report stronger-than-expected retail sales and pricing performance for Q3, but face significant challenges in Q4 due to tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and slowing electric vehicle demand [1][2]. Group 1: Q3 Performance - Ford's retail sales increased by 8.2% year-over-year, while General Motors' sales rose by 7.7%, outperforming the industry average growth of 5.2% [1]. - The average transaction price (ATP) for Ford rose by 1.7% year-over-year, and for General Motors, it increased by 4.8% [1]. - General Motors' incentive spending as a percentage of vehicle price was only 6.1%, below the industry average, indicating stronger pricing power [1]. - General Motors' adjusted EBIT for Q3 is projected at $2.81 billion, exceeding market expectations by 3.5%, while Ford's EBIT is expected to be $2.11 billion, surpassing expectations by 3.9% [1]. Group 2: Q4 and Future Risks - In Q4, General Motors faces risks from metal tariffs and potential 25% tariffs on medium/heavy trucks, which could reduce EBIT by $650 million in 2025 [2]. - Ford is impacted by a fire at a key aluminum supplier's plant, leading to an expected production cut of 120,000 to 150,000 units for F-150/250 models, resulting in an estimated gross profit loss of $700 million [2]. - Ford's Q4 EBIT forecast has been significantly reduced from $1.79 billion to $1.33 billion, with EPS lowered from $0.30 to $0.21, falling short of market expectations [2]. Group 3: Long-term Projections - General Motors' 2026 EBIT forecast has been revised down from $13.4 billion to $11.8 billion due to a 3% decline in North American sales expectations [2]. - Ford's 2026 EBIT forecast has been adjusted from $9.7 billion to $8 billion, attributed to slower margin improvement in Ford Pro and continued losses in the Model e electric vehicle business [2]. - Free cash flow projections indicate General Motors will have $7.9 billion in 2025, supporting ongoing buybacks and dividends, while Ford's free cash flow is expected to drop from $4 billion to $2.5 billion in 2026, potentially limiting buyback capacity [2]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Outlook - Current valuations reflect most negative expectations, with projected EV/EBITDA for General Motors at 2.8x and Ford at 2.6x for 2026, indicating some margin of safety [3]. - Key variables influencing stock price volatility in the short term include tariff policies, supply chain recovery, and trends in the electric vehicle market [3].