债市日报：10月17日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed significant recovery on October 17, with all major government bond futures rising, indicating a potential rebound from earlier market overextensions [1][2]. Market Performance - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.74% to close at 115.870, marking a one-month high; the 10-year and 5-year contracts increased by 0.12% and 0.07%, respectively [2]. - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond decreased by 2.9 basis points to 1.9010%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 2.07% [2]. Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,648 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,442 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight rate rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.318% [5]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the recent decline in deposit rates has led to a "deposit migration" effect, posing challenges for institutional investors facing asset scarcity [6]. - Huazhong Securities indicated that recent economic data suggests a weak recovery phase, which remains favorable for the bond market [6][7]. Yield Spread Analysis - Guoxin Securities observed that the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds has widened again, influenced by macroeconomic changes and tax policy adjustments [7].