美国房地产市场降温，会降到什么程度

Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. real estate market is undergoing a second adjustment period since 2022, characterized by a gradual cooling, with sellers reducing listing prices and an increase in active listings [1][2] - As of October 3, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. is reported at 6.34%, indicating a decline below the 52-week average [1] - The number of active listings has exceeded 1 million for five consecutive months, with a continuous increase in available homes for sale over the past 23 months [2] Group 2: Price Adjustments - Approximately 20% of homes listed in September experienced price reductions, particularly those priced between $350,000 and $500,000 [2] - The S&P Case-Shiller Index indicates a 1.7% year-over-year increase in overall U.S. home prices as of July, with notable increases in cities like New York, Chicago, and Cleveland [2] - Certain cities, including Miami, Dallas, and San Francisco, have seen significant year-over-year price declines ranging from 1.3% to 2.8% [2] Group 3: Regional Dynamics - The Northeast and Midwest regions, particularly New York, New Jersey, and Chicago, have shown the best price growth due to previous underperformance during the pandemic [2] - In contrast, cities in the South and West, such as Tampa and Austin, are experiencing stagnation or negative growth in home prices due to prior rapid increases [2][3] Group 4: Housing Supply and Demand - The U.S. housing market is facing a shortage of 4.7 million homes, with the current inventory at 4.7 months of sales, below the 6-month equilibrium point [3][4] - The historical high of $17.6 trillion in home equity indicates a strong financial position for homeowners, contributing to a lack of forced sales [3] Group 5: Mortgage Rate Influences - Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, with rates declining since July due to expectations of Fed rate cuts [5][6] - As of mid-September, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.26%, with monthly payments decreasing to $2,148, which is 30% of the average household income [5] Group 6: Future Projections - Predictions suggest that mortgage rates could drop to the range of 5% to 6% by 2026, which would likely stimulate demand and accelerate home price growth by 5% to 10% [6] - However, the recent government shutdown may pose short-term challenges to the real estate market [6]