降息预期升温+银行风险复燃 美元指数恐创7月以来最大周跌幅

Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, marking its worst weekly performance since July, with a current weekly drop of 0.5% [1][2] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased, with traders now anticipating a cumulative reduction of 53 basis points by the end of the year, up from 46 basis points previously [1][2] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to continue steady rate cuts, with discussions around a potential 25 basis point reduction to support the labor market [2] Group 2 - The decline in the dollar is also influenced by a significant drop in regional bank stock prices due to concerns over tightened lending standards, alongside easing political risks in Japan and France [2] - Analysts from ING highlight multiple negative factors impacting the dollar, including the Fed's dovish policy re-pricing, progress in Ukraine ceasefire talks, falling oil prices, and ongoing US-China trade tensions [2] - Current market sentiment remains fragile, with investors adopting short-term trading strategies as the dollar has retraced about one-third of its rebound from a three-year low [3]