Asia Morning Briefing: QCP Says Global Liquidity, Not Fed Cuts, Is Powering the Market

Market Overview - The market has transitioned from merely observing interest rates to a full liquidity regime, where central bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows are the primary drivers of risk rather than the Federal Reserve's rate adjustments [1] - Central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging are the main forces driving gold prices higher, indicating a shift beyond traditional inflation-hedge frameworks [2] Predictions and Trends - Prediction markets indicate a steady but shallow easing cycle from the Fed, favoring gold and digital assets over high-beta risks, with a 76% chance of three rate cuts in 2025 totaling 75 basis points [3] - Kalshi traders assign a 51% probability that Bitcoin will break $130,000 this year, with lower probabilities for $140,000 and $150,000 [4] Market Positioning - The market is preparing for a slow-burn rally rather than a speculative surge, as easing expectations gradually influence real yields and dollar liquidity [5] - On-chain signals suggest a liquidity-fed advance rather than an adrenaline-driven bull market, indicating potential for continued asset appreciation without aggressive Fed intervention [6] Current Market Movement - Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, influenced by U.S.–China trade tensions and global risk concerns, with analysts warning that breaching the $110,000 support could lead to a drop towards $96,500–$100,000 [7] - Ethereum is trading around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors reduce exposure amid macro uncertainty, although some remain optimistic about its potential to "catch up" to gold over time [7]