上下游仍处僵持博弈阶段，光伏产业链价格暂持平

Core Insights - The domestic polysilicon market remains stable with average prices for N-type polysilicon and N-type granular silicon holding steady at 53,200 CNY/ton and 50,500 CNY/ton respectively, with transaction volumes decreasing [1] - The overall polysilicon production in September was approximately 129,000 tons, a 5.3% increase month-on-month, while consumption was around 116,000 tons, up 3.4% month-on-month [1] - The industry is facing a weak demand environment, with downstream sectors primarily consuming existing inventory rather than placing new orders [2][3] Polysilicon Market - The polysilicon market has seen a decrease in transaction volumes, with only 2-3 main signing companies remaining active [1] - Factors contributing to price stability include stable operating rates at wafer manufacturers and significant polysilicon inventory levels [1] - The cumulative polysilicon production for the first three quarters of the year was approximately 956,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1% [1] Silicon Wafer Market - The average transaction prices for silicon wafers remained unchanged, with 183N wafers at 1.32 CNY/piece, 210RN wafers at 1.40 CNY/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.68 CNY/piece [2] - The market is characterized by a standoff between suppliers and buyers, with suppliers reluctant to lower prices due to high silicon material costs [2][3] - Future demand may improve due to overseas market developments and domestic export tax rebate policies [2] Battery and Component Market - Battery cell prices for 183N and 210N specifications remained stable at 0.32 CNY/W and 0.31 CNY/W respectively, while 210RN prices fell to 0.285 CNY/W [3] - The cost pressures on battery manufacturers have increased due to rising silver prices, leading to potential losses at current price levels [3] - Component prices remain relatively firm, with centralized project prices ranging from 0.64 CNY/W to 0.70 CNY/W and distributed project prices between 0.66 CNY/W and 0.70 CNY/W [4] Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain price stability in the short term, with potential for a rebalancing of supply and demand if production cuts are implemented as planned in November [3] - The overall demand is anticipated to decline in the latter half of October, with companies reporting lower-than-expected orders [4] - Attention will shift towards the signing of orders and production arrangements for the first quarter of the next year as demand weakens [4]