洪灏：所有人都在疯狂买黄金 极端超买下风险大于收益｜首席对策

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged past $4,300, marking a historic milestone as the first global asset to exceed a market capitalization of $30 trillion, indicating extreme overbuying and potential risks outweighing rewards [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has experienced a continuous rise for seven weeks, an unprecedented occurrence in history [2][3] - The current state of extreme overbuying suggests that the risks associated with gold investments are greater than the potential rewards at this time [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company does not recommend increasing positions in gold at this moment, suggesting that investors should hold existing positions instead [3][7] - A long-term allocation of at least 20% in gold is advised for asset diversification and risk management, contrasting with short-term trading strategies [7][8] Group 3: Central Bank Influence - Central banks globally are expected to continue purchasing gold, which will provide structural support for gold prices [4][5] - The proportion of gold reserves held by central banks has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a significant backing for gold prices [5] Group 4: Demand Factors - The primary support for gold prices stems from safe-haven demand, particularly during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty [6][7] - Institutional demand, such as from ETFs, is also a significant factor influencing gold prices, as these entities seek to track gold's performance [6][7] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The extreme overbought condition of gold is deemed unsustainable, and caution is advised as market dynamics may shift [7][9] - The current market environment reflects a broader skepticism towards fiat currencies, with gold's value rising significantly against paper money [8][9]