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Moody's says the banking system, private credit markets are sound despite worries over bad loans
CNBCยท2025-10-17 12:45

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over bad loans at midsize U.S. banks exist, but there is little evidence of a systemic problem that could lead to a broader financial crisis according to a senior analyst at Moody's Ratings [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Cycle and Asset Quality - The credit cycle does not show signs of turning negatively, with no evidence found to support market fears [3]. - Asset quality numbers have shown very little deterioration over the last several quarters, indicating stability in the banking sector [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Bank stocks experienced a significant sell-off due to concerns over bad loans, particularly after disclosures from Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp [3][4]. - Market sentiment improved following a sell-off, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF rising 2% in premarket trading after a 6.2% drop [6][7]. Group 3: Default Rates and Economic Outlook - Default rates on high-yield debt remain low, under 5% this year, and are expected to decline to below 3% by 2026, contrasting sharply with the high double-digit defaults during the 2008 financial crisis [5]. - The U.S. economy is performing better than anticipated, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and credit quality appearing stable or potentially improving [5][6].