智通财经网·2025-10-17 13:34Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a rebound due to the anticipated release of a notification aimed at strengthening capacity regulation, signaling a shift from "barbaric growth" to "high-quality breakthroughs" [1][3] Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry entered a phase of rapid growth following the introduction of carbon neutrality policies in 2020, but overcapacity has led to significant price declines, with polysilicon prices dropping from over 300,000 CNY/ton in 2022 to as low as 30,000 CNY/ton in 2024 [2][3] - The "anti-involution" policies introduced in 2025 are expected to effectively address structural issues within the industry, with a focus on eliminating low-cost competition and facilitating the orderly exit of outdated capacity [3][9] Market Dynamics - The demand for photovoltaic installations remains strong, with an expected installed capacity of 886.6 GW in China by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 36.82% over the past five years [4] - The supply-side control of capacity and increased demand-side support are driving a new investment opportunity in the photovoltaic sector, leading to a rebound in industry prices [5][9] Company Performance - New Special Energy has managed to maintain a lower loss rate by diversifying its business into downstream photovoltaic power station construction and operation, which has contributed positively to its revenue [8] - In the first half of 2025, New Special Energy's revenue contributions from polysilicon, wind and photovoltaic power station construction, and operation were 13.68%, 67.62%, and 18.9%, respectively, with a gross loss of 1.033 billion CNY from polysilicon [8] - Leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, such as Longi Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan, are highly sensitive to price fluctuations due to their concentrated business models, while New Special Energy's diversified approach provides it with greater resilience [9]