Will Nebius' Toloka and ClickHouse Stakes Fund Its AI Expansion?

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is experiencing significant revenue growth, with a 625% increase last quarter, driven by the surging demand for AI infrastructure, particularly in generative AI and high-performance computing applications [1][9] - The company has signed a substantial $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft to provide dedicated GPU capacity from its new data center in Vineland, NJ [1][9] Company Expansion and Strategy - Nebius is expanding its AI infrastructure with new data centers being constructed in New Jersey, the UK, and Israel, along with capacity expansion in Finland, targeting nearly 1 gigawatt of total capacity by 2026 [2] - The rapid expansion necessitates significant capital, and investors are keen to understand how Nebius plans to fund this growth phase [2] Financial Position and Equity Stakes - Management has indicated that Nebius has significant cash reserves and will approach additional capital raising opportunistically based on market conditions [3] - The company holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, valued at approximately $6 billion, which could serve as a capital source if monetized [3] - Other equity stakes include Toloka, TripleTen, and Avride, which may also provide value drivers for the company [3][5] Investor Confidence and Future Valuation - Toloka recently raised growth capital, indicating strong investor confidence in its AI data business, and Nebius sees significant upside potential in Toloka's future valuation [4] - The company aims to monetize its non-core businesses effectively to support its core operations while minimizing shareholder dilution [5] Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is both a client and competitor, investing heavily in AI infrastructure and expanding its data center footprint, with over 400 data centers across 70 regions [6][7] - CoreWeave (CRWV) is emerging as a serious competitor, with significant contracts and aggressive data center expansion plans [8][10] Financial Performance and Valuation - Nebius shares have increased by 30.7% in the past month, contrasting with a slight decline in the Internet – Software and Services industry [11] - The company's shares are trading at a price/book ratio of 7.68X, higher than the industry average of 4.61X [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS' earnings for 2025 has been revised upwards over the past 60 days [13]