开源证券韦冀星：本轮行情中选行业比选个股更重要

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing increased volatility, but it remains in a medium to long-term upward trend, with a focus on technology growth as the dominant theme [1][2]. Market Conditions - The A-share market has seen heightened fluctuations since early September, but it is believed to be in a clear medium to long-term upward trend, suggesting investors should not overly focus on short-term volatility [2]. - The driving forces behind the current market rally are identified as top-level design support for the capital market, increased liquidity from ETF inflows, and sustained positive catalysts from technological innovations such as AI [2]. Market Valuation - The current securities ratio (market capitalization to GDP) is approximately 0.86 to 0.87, indicating significant potential for market capitalization growth, as historical data shows that securities ratios above 1 often lead to higher market valuations [2]. Sector Analysis - There is ongoing discussion about whether the market will shift from high-growth technology sectors to lower-performing cyclical sectors; however, the conditions for such a shift are not yet present [3]. - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors are expected to maintain profitability advantages starting in 2025, supported by strong demand for AI computing power and a dual resonance in the semiconductor cycle driven by both consumer and corporate demand [3]. Investment Opportunities - The ChiNext index is currently viewed as the most cost-effective growth index in the market, with a diverse weight distribution across AI hardware, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [4]. - The Hong Kong market has faced challenges but is now entering an environment of incremental capital, with a focus on growth-oriented investments, particularly in AI hardware and applications [5]. Investment Strategy - In the current market, selecting sectors may be more critical than picking individual stocks, with a dual focus on technology growth stocks and sectors benefiting from PPI recovery [6]. - Recommendations include focusing on sectors with strong policy certainty such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and real estate for valuation recovery, while also considering consumer sectors with improving profitability [7].