Flagstar Financial (FLG) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?

Core Viewpoint - Flagstar Financial (FLG) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues for the quarter ended September 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for Flagstar Financial is a loss of $0.06 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +91.3%. Revenues are projected to be $514.03 million, down 17.5% from the previous year [3]. - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for October 24, and the stock may rise if the actual numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 11.81% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Flagstar Financial is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +4.51%, suggesting a bullish outlook on the company's earnings prospects [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - Flagstar Financial currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, along with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Flagstar Financial was expected to post a loss of $0.12 per share but actually reported a loss of -$0.14, resulting in a surprise of -16.67% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates twice [14]. Industry Comparison - Valley National (VLY), another player in the Zacks Banks - Northeast industry, is expected to report an EPS of $0.26 for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year change of +44.4% and revenues of $512.75 million, up 8.5% from the previous year [18]. - Valley National's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.5% higher recently, with an Earnings ESP of +2.6% and a Zacks Rank of 2, suggesting a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [19].