Will Chubb Limited Pull Off a Surprise This Earnings Season?

Core Insights - Chubb Limited (CB) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings in its upcoming third-quarter 2025 results, scheduled for release on October 21 [1] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CB's third-quarter revenues is $15.88 billion, reflecting a 5.7% increase from the previous year [2] - The consensus estimate for earnings is $5.94 per share, which has increased by 9.3% over the past 30 days, indicating a year-over-year growth of 3.8% [2] Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model suggests a likely earnings beat for CB, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +5.24% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][4] Premium Growth Factors - Premiums in Q3 are expected to benefit from growth across most product lines, driven by strong premium retention, rate increases, and new business [5] - The high net-worth personal lines business is projected to see positive impacts from strong new business and retention [5] International Life Insurance Performance - Premiums in International Life Insurance are expected to rise due to strong new business in North Asia, particularly in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is $14.2 billion, indicating a 6.6% increase from the previous year [6] Investment Income Expectations - Net investment income is likely to benefit from higher average invested assets and reinvestment rates, with an expected range of $1.72 billion to $1.74 billion for the quarter [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income is $1.8 billion, representing a 19.8% increase from the previous year [7] Underwriting Profitability - Improved pricing and increased exposure, along with prudent underwriting, are expected to enhance underwriting profitability, leading to an improved combined ratio estimated at 88 [8] - Expenses are anticipated to rise due to higher losses, policy benefits, and administrative costs, with an estimated total of $13.2 billion [8] Share Buybacks Impact - Share buybacks in the upcoming quarter are likely to positively influence the bottom line [9] Overall Premium and Investment Outlook - Premiums are expected to benefit from strong retention and new business across most product lines, while net investment income is supported by higher invested assets and strong reinvestment yields [10]