A Disconnect Between Prices & Fundamentals

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced a significant 16% decline, which appears to be more psychological than structural, despite a stable macro backdrop and only a minor 2% dip in the Nasdaq [1][5] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to rising uncertainty over fiscal policy, with an 82% chance that it will last beyond 30 days, impacting business sentiment [2][5] - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the fundamentals supporting Bitcoin remain strong, driven by macroeconomic weakness, potential Federal Reserve easing, and distrust in traditional financial systems [5][6] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin ETPs saw outflows of $588 million, but overall digital asset ETPs recorded net inflows of $40 million, indicating that institutional positioning remains robust [3][6] - Selling pressure is primarily among crypto-native investors rather than long-term holders, suggesting resilience in the investment case for Bitcoin [3][4] - Renewed U.S.–China trade tensions may pose a greater threat to equities than to digital assets, with Bitcoin potentially serving as a hedge against systemic financial risk [4][6] Long-term Outlook - The current correction may represent a temporary dislocation rather than a breakdown, emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between price action and fundamentals for investors [6][7] - Structural forces driving institutional adoption and distrust in the banking system continue to support Bitcoin's long-term investment thesis [6][7]