Bitcoin Is ‘Flirting’ with Danger: Early Black Friday?

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the critical $112,000 level due to macroeconomic concerns and a significant $19 billion in futures liquidation across exchanges [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The crypto market is entering a "reset phase," characterized by a large-scale leverage flush, slowing ETF inflows, and increased volatility, described as "an Early Black Friday" [2]. - Bitcoin is currently trading around $111,000, down approximately 9% over the past week, with a decline below the $117,000–$114,000 cost-basis zone since October 10 [2]. - On-chain data indicates ongoing selling from long-term holders since July and a decrease in institutional interest, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a 2,300 BTC outflow this week [3]. Group 2: Futures Market Dynamics - The futures market has seen a significant cleanup, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio dropping to multi-month lows and funding rates falling to levels not seen since the 2022 FTX collapse, indicating intense liquidation and peak market fear [3]. - The options market is showing early signs of stabilization, with open interest rebounding despite a surge in volatility to 76% [4]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe Bitcoin could reach new highs by 2026, suggesting that current dips present buying opportunities, provided the $102,000 level holds [5]. - Conversely, crypto analyst Jason Pizzino warns that a drop below $108,000 could jeopardize the bull market, although other assets like gold and stocks remain near record highs, indicating ongoing support for long-term growth [5].