认清本轮周期大趋势

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong performance from May to September, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for five consecutive months, peaking at an 18.91% increase, but faced a downturn in October due to multiple factors, including external trade tensions and internal market adjustments [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new 10-year high at 3900 points at the beginning of October but subsequently lost this level, indicating a period of volatility and adjustment [1]. - August was noted as the best month since the "9.24" market surge, with a monthly increase of 7.97% [1]. Factors Influencing Market Adjustment - The rapid increase in the market over the previous months led to a buildup of profit-taking pressure, necessitating a technical correction. This adjustment was evident in September, where the market showed signs of weakness despite a positive monthly close [2]. - The technology sector, particularly stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI), had been leading the market but faced scrutiny over potential bubbles, contributing to downward pressure on prices [2]. Future Outlook - The current market adjustment is viewed as a phase of correction since the "9.24" rally, with limited downside potential. The financial sector is showing signs of recovery, which could support the overall market [3]. - Positive macroeconomic data suggests a strengthening trend in the real economy, which, along with incremental policy measures, is expected to provide substantial support for the market's upward trajectory [3]. - Investor confidence is crucial, and a long-term perspective is encouraged to navigate through the current market fluctuations [3].