绿色转型与产能优化齐头并进 钢铁行业力稳基本盘

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to provide policy guidance for the development of China's steel industry, addressing challenges such as excessive supply and insufficient effective demand [1][2]. Industry Growth Targets - The plan sets an annual average growth target of approximately 4% for the steel industry's added value over the next two years, aiming for economic stability and recovery [2]. - The China Iron and Steel Association expresses confidence in achieving this target due to improving economic conditions and ongoing upgrades in the steel industry [2]. Structural Improvements - 2024 is projected to be a turning point for the structure of China's steel products, with the production of medium-thick wide steel strips expected to exceed 200 million tons, surpassing rebar for the first time [4]. - The ratio of construction steel to industrial steel is expected to reach a balanced "50-50" for the first time, reflecting a shift driven by real estate adjustments and industrial upgrades [4]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic steel demand has decreased by 160 million tons compared to peak levels, with crude steel production expected to decline to 1.005 billion tons in 2024, a 1.7% decrease from the previous year [4]. - The industry anticipates a gradual stabilization of total steel demand over the next decade, with projections indicating a decline to 880 million tons by 2030 and 820 million tons by 2035 [6]. Technological Advancements - The steel industry has made significant technological progress, with Chinese companies now capable of producing high-end steel products that were previously reliant on imports [7]. - By 2025, leading global steel companies are expected to have launched 153 new steel products, showcasing advancements driven by independent research and development [7]. Environmental Upgrades - The steel industry has made notable strides in achieving ultra-low emissions, with significant investments leading to improved environmental performance [8]. - By the end of 2025, the industry aims to complete ultra-low emission upgrades for over 80% of its production capacity, reflecting a commitment to sustainable development [8]. Corporate Transformations - Many steel companies are actively transforming their product structures to adapt to changing demand, focusing on high-value-added products such as plates and specialty steels [9][10]. - Companies like Shagang and Hualing Steel have successfully shifted from traditional construction steel to manufacturing steel, demonstrating resilience in a challenging market [9][10]. AI Integration - Domestic steel enterprises are increasingly adopting AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency, with Baosteel launching an AI transformation project that aims to cover over 85% of key processes by mid-2025 [11]. - AI applications have proven beneficial in areas such as scrap steel evaluation, showcasing the industry's commitment to innovation and modernization [11].