Overlooked Stock: BG Benefits from Tariff Tantrum

Core Insights - Bungie Global has seen a significant stock rally of 20% this week, driven by developments in the US-China trade war and the potential embargo on cooking oil by President Trump [2][3][4] Company Performance - Bungie Global's sales were approximately $50 billion last year, down 25% from $67 billion in 2022, with earnings decreasing by 48% [7] - The recent policy changes have created a favorable market environment that may lead to increased soybean prices and improved profitability for Bungie [7] Market Dynamics - The Trump administration's declaration regarding China's reduced purchases of US soybeans has led to depressed soybean prices, as China has shifted to Brazilian imports [3][6] - The company operates in the specialty agriculture sector, dealing with raw commodities, storage, brokerage, transportation, and processing services, including soybeans and cooking oils [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts expect Bungie Global's revenue to grow to $74 billion, representing a nearly 50% increase compared to the previous four quarters, indicating a potential turnaround for the company [10] - The weak US dollar is impacting both the cost of exporting US products and the procurement of resources from overseas, which may affect Bungie's operations [9][10] Industry Context - The ongoing trade tensions and the influence of powerful farm and bank lobbies in Washington are critical factors in shaping the agricultural market dynamics, particularly regarding US soybean exports [11][12]