上下游博弈持续?光伏产业链价格波澜不惊

Group 1: Polysilicon Market Overview - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is stable at 53,200 CNY/ton, while N-type granular silicon is also stable at 50,500 CNY/ton [1] - The overall transaction volume in the domestic polysilicon market is low, with a decrease in order volume and only 2-3 main signing companies [1] - The stability in polysilicon prices is influenced by stable operating rates of silicon wafer companies and their substantial inventory levels, alongside reduced sales capacity from some polysilicon producers due to maintenance or production cuts [1] Group 2: Production and Consumption Data - In September, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 129,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.3%, while consumption was about 116,000 tons, up 3.4% [1] - Cumulatively, in the first three quarters of the year, domestic polysilicon production was about 956,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%, and consumption was approximately 964,000 tons, down 20.1% [1] - The industry has seen a cumulative inventory reduction of about 12,000 tons in the first nine months of the year [1] Group 3: Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices - The average transaction prices for silicon wafers remain unchanged, with 183N at 1.32 CNY/piece, 210RN at 1.40 CNY/piece, and 210N at 1.68 CNY/piece [2] - Despite weak demand and inventory pressure in the silicon wafer market, there is a positive trend in demand due to anti-dumping tariffs in India and domestic export tax rebate policies [2] - Battery cell prices for 183N and 210N specifications remain stable at 0.32 CNY/W and 0.31 CNY/W, respectively, while 210RN has decreased to 0.285 CNY/W [2] Group 4: Module Market Outlook - The module market remains relatively stable post-holiday, with some price increases due to rising costs of battery and auxiliary materials [3] - A decline in demand is expected in the second half of October, with some companies reporting lower-than-expected orders [3] - Attention will shift to the signing of orders and production arrangements for the first quarter of next year as demand weakens further in November and December [3]