巨震超4%！国际金价冲击4400美元未果

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of market sentiment, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, with a notable increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainties [1][2][3]. Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a significant rise, with a weekly increase of over 8%, reaching a peak close to 4380 USD/oz, marking the largest weekly gain since September 2008 [2]. - The price of gold has risen more than 66% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts, and substantial inflows into gold ETFs [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold surpassed 88, indicating an overbought condition, suggesting a potential need for market correction [3]. - Historical data shows that gold has not experienced a consecutive 10-week increase, with only four instances of nine-week increases since the 1970s [3]. Institutional Insights - The SPDR Gold Trust reported a record high holding of 1034.62 tons, the highest since July 2022, reflecting strong investor interest [4]. - HSBC forecasts that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., with a target price of 5000 USD [5]. Economic Factors - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influencing gold demand, as investors seek to hedge against potential economic instability [4][5]. - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit are leading investors to view gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential dollar weakness [5].