Economic Outlook - Recession risk remains low, with only 8% of global fund managers expecting a global recession in the next 12 months, indicating a consensus that the economy will be stable, which is necessary to support current valuations [1][6] Gold Market - Gold prices have reached a new all-time high (ATH) of over US$4,200 per ounce, marking a 60% increase in 2025, the best performance since 1979 [1][2] - The gold trade is perceived as crowded, with 43% of global fund managers indicating "Long Gold" as the most crowded trade, while 39% of professional investors do not hold any gold in their portfolios [2][6] - The average allocation to gold among investors is just 2.4%, which is near an all-time low, suggesting that gold is becoming more mainstream [2][6] U.S. Fiscal Policy - For the first time, U.S. spending on interest payments has surpassed national defense spending, with interest payments at US$1.2 trillion compared to US$1.1 trillion for defense [3][4][6] - This shift highlights the financial burden of past borrowing, indicating a significant change in fiscal priorities [4][6] Geopolitical Concerns - The outsourcing of rare-earths supply to China is described as a major geopolitical mistake since World War II, emphasizing the critical role of rare-earths in national defense [4][6]
Become a Better Investor Newsletter – 18 October 2025
Become A Better Investor·2025-10-18 00:01