Sugar Prices Fall on Abundant Global Supplies

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have been declining, with NY sugar closing down 1.90% and London sugar down 0.36% on Friday [1][2] - The recent trends indicate that London sugar has reached a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, while NY sugar is above a 3-week nearest-futures low [2] - Over the past seven months, NY sugar has seen a 4.5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar output in Brazil [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projects a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimates a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with a rise in the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region through September rose by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier expectations [5]