民生证券：特朗普的“生财之道”

Core Insights - The article discusses the financial challenges faced by the U.S. government and the strategies employed by the Trump administration to increase revenue and manage debt [4][5][15] - It highlights the reliance on tariffs and other innovative revenue-generating methods as part of Trump's economic policy [8][9][10] Revenue Generation Strategies - The U.S. government is projected to have a fiscal revenue of $5.23 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, an increase of approximately $310 billion from 2024, largely due to a $120 billion increase in tariff revenue, which represents a 150% growth [4][5] - The government is struggling with expenditure, which has grown by 4%, with net interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [4][5] - The "OBBBA" tax reduction effects are expected to be tight in 2025, with significant impacts only materializing in 2026 [5] Innovative Revenue Mechanisms - The administration is adopting a "national capitalism" approach, converting government support into equity stakes in companies, as seen with Intel [9][10] - Export fees are being introduced, such as a proposed 15% revenue share on AI chip sales to China, which reflects a shift towards selective charging rather than blanket restrictions [10] - The government is also charging fees for transactions it facilitates, exemplified by the anticipated fees from the TikTok deal [10] Investment and Economic Growth - The article notes that the government is positioning itself as a strategic investor, particularly in the AI sector, with potential investments exceeding $4.7 trillion from international commitments [12][13] - The U.S. government is expected to leverage its financial power to stabilize cash flows in strategic industries, thereby extending capital expenditure cycles [12][15] Summary of Key Points - The Trump administration's financial strategy is characterized by a focus on increasing revenue through tariffs and innovative financial mechanisms [4][8][15] - The government is exploring various avenues for revenue generation, including equity stakes in companies and export fees [9][10] - The potential for significant government-led investments in AI and other strategic sectors is highlighted, with international commitments already in place [12][13]