Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-19 05:26Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound due to easing concerns over credit risks from regional bank earnings and President Trump's statements alleviating trade tensions, with the VIX index returning to the psychological level of 20 [1] Economic Data - The NFIB small business optimism index fell by 2.0 points to 98.8 in September, indicating a decline in sentiment [3] - The New York manufacturing index rose by 19.4 points to 10.7, returning to expansion territory, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped to a six-month low, reflecting regional economic weakness [3] - Initial jobless claims decreased to approximately 217,000, down from 234,000 the previous week, while continuing claims remained stable at 1.92 million [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated stagnation in economic expansion, with an increase in reported layoffs and concerns over rising input costs due to tariffs [3] Market Reactions - The U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down about 7 basis points to 3.457% and the 10-year yield down about 5 basis points to 4.001%, amid rising short-term uncertainty [4] - Market expectations for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with predictions of two 25 basis point cuts this year and three in 2026 [4] - The stock market saw gains across all sectors, with the S&P 500 index rising over 1.5% and the communication services sector leading with a 3.6% increase [6] Institutional Sentiment - Institutional investors remain optimistic, with a recent Bank of America survey indicating bullish sentiment at an eight-month high [7] - The S&P 500 index successfully held above its 50-day moving average, supported by strong earnings from major banks [7] - Despite a decline in cryptocurrency performance, there appears to be buying support at lower levels, indicating a potential market reset [7]