The Nasdaq Is Doing Something Seen 7 Times Since 1990. History Says the Stock Market Will Make a Big Move in 2026.

Core Insights - The Nasdaq Composite has entered its seventh bull market since 1990, typically defined as a 20% increase from the previous bear market low, reaching a new record high [3][5] - Historically, the Nasdaq Composite has returned an average of 281% during bull markets, achieving these returns over an average of 1,817 days, or approximately five years, with an annual compounding rate of 33% [1][6] - The current bull market began on April 8, 2025, and the Nasdaq has gained 49% in the six months since then, with historical trends suggesting it could advance another 232% over the next four-and-a-half years [9] Nasdaq Composite Overview - The Nasdaq Composite is one of the three major U.S. stock market indexes, measuring the performance of about 3,300 companies, heavily weighted towards technology (64%) and consumer discretionary (17%) sectors [4] - The Invesco QQQ ETF provides exposure to the 100 largest nonfinancial companies in the Nasdaq Composite, returning 15.6% annually over the last two decades [6][11] Historical Context - The bull market that began in October 2002 lasted nearly 16 years, despite the index not reaching a new high until April 2015, following the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 [7][8] - The Nasdaq peaked in March 2000 and fell 78% by October 2002, marking the start of a new bull market, although it did not officially enter a bear market during the Great Recession [8] Future Projections - Based on historical averages, the Nasdaq is expected to advance 31% in 2026 if it aligns with past performance [9] - The Invesco QQQ ETF has returned 1,740% over the last two decades, compounding at 15.6% annually, with expectations for similar returns in the future, particularly due to the AI boom [11][12]