智通财经网·2025-10-19 10:47Core Insights - The primary structural fundamental clue in the A-share market remains the globalization of Chinese enterprises, which is significantly influenced by the current state of US-China relations [1][2][6] Group 1: Chinese Enterprises Going Global - The globalization of Chinese enterprises is emphasized as the most important fundamental clue and market trend, with companies having overseas exposure showing more positive fundamentals [1] - Companies with over 20% of their revenue from overseas have seen a cumulative increase of 26% since June, compared to a 15% increase for other non-financial stocks [1] - The share of revenue and profit from companies with significant overseas exposure in the A-share market is projected to be 31% and 38% respectively by mid-2025 [1] Group 2: Impact of US-China Relations - The recent complexities in US-China trade disputes may continue to affect market pricing for overseas ventures, with a lower probability of quickly resolving differences [2] - China's recent measures, including export reviews of strategic resources, indicate a long-term strategic deployment aimed at maintaining industrial security and national interests [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investor sentiment has shown signs of hesitation in adjusting positions due to the TACO trading experience, with overall market trading losses reaching the highest level since March [3] - Despite a decline in the investor sentiment index, active private equity positions remain high, indicating an overall optimistic attitude among investors [3] Group 4: Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities - The dividend sector is currently experiencing a phase of high cutting low, but this is seen as a rotation based on old logic rather than a new trend [4] - The rebound in the dividend sector may be a result of investor "muscle memory," with limited potential for sustained excess returns [4] Group 5: Strategic Intent for Resource and Technology Security - China's recent export control measures extend beyond strategic resources to include critical materials and equipment, reflecting a strategic intent to safeguard resource and technology security [5] - The establishment of appropriate export review systems is crucial for ensuring long-term security in the supply chain and promoting the competitiveness of leading companies [5][7] Group 6: Future Investment Clues - Post-dividend rotation, attention should be focused on new clues that may persist into the next year, particularly in areas of supply chain security and edge AI [6][7] - Key sectors to monitor include strategic resources, lithium battery equipment, and industries with competitive advantages that also face external pressures [7]