再迎“大年”，私募这个大类策略火了

Core Insights - The macro strategy in the private equity sector has shown a strong performance this year, with an average return of nearly 25% as of September, driven by the recovery in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as well as the rise in precious metals and certain non-ferrous metals [1][2][3] Performance Metrics - As of October 16, the average return for private macro strategies was reported at 24.54%, which is approximately three times the average return of 8.21% expected for the entire year of 2024 [2] - Monthly average returns for private macro strategies from January to September were recorded as follows: -0.34%, 2.54%, 0.69%, 0.94%, 0.56%, 2.37%, 1.14%, 5.18%, and 4.70%, with only January showing a negative return [2] - Among 272 private macro strategy products monitored, 252 achieved positive returns in the first nine months of the year, representing a success rate of 92.65% [2] Market Environment - The strong performance of macro strategies is closely linked to the favorable market conditions, including significant gains in equity assets and certain commodities like gold and silver [3] - The macro strategy's ability to cover multiple asset classes, including stocks, commodities, bonds, and financial derivatives, has positioned it well in the current market environment [3] Competitive Advantages - The core competitive advantage of macro strategies lies in their risk diversification and multiple sources of returns, which are achieved through a multi-asset allocation approach [4] - The strategy benefits from a rich variety of return sources, allowing it to perform well in different market conditions without relying on a single asset [4] - Macro strategies aim for absolute returns with lower drawdowns and quicker recovery, utilizing the asymmetric volatility of stock and commodity markets for natural hedging [4][5] Strategic Considerations - The cyclical differences among various asset classes provide additional return opportunities for multi-asset strategies [5] - The effective use of leverage in the futures market can enhance returns, particularly for low-volatility assets, while controlling tail risks for high-volatility assets [5] - However, in a strong upward market, multi-asset strategies may lag behind pure equity strategies in terms of performance [5] Future Directions - Private equity managers are advised to focus on macro analysis and dynamic asset allocation capabilities to adapt to unique economic patterns [6][7] - Risk control and operational capabilities are essential for managing extreme scenario risks and complying with increasingly stringent regulations [7] - Transparency in strategy and clear communication of return sources are crucial for building long-term trust with investors [7]