Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-19 11:29Core Viewpoint - The current long-term cost-performance ratio of the technology sector is considered low, but short-term cost-performance issues have been sufficiently digested, suggesting a potential new round of technology market rally driven by industrial catalysts [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Spring 2026 is anticipated to be a phase peak for the A-share market, facing three challenges: 1) A critical verification period for demand-side dynamics may arise, where supply growth returns to low levels, potentially improving supply-demand balance, but weak demand could delay the supply-demand turning point [1] - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is expected to be "delayed" rather than "disproved," with a further strengthening of the global easing framework, leading to a sequential recovery of the "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" in the A-share market [1] - The emergence of new structural highlights may require time, as the decisive catalysts for the domestic technology industry trends and the verification period for anti-involution effects will take time to materialize, suggesting that Spring 2026 may still lack new leading themes [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The long-term cost-performance ratio of the technology sector may reach extremely low levels by Spring 2026, reminiscent of the end of 2013 for the ChiNext and the end of 2019 for the food and beverage sector, potentially leading to a mid-term consolidation phase for the market [1] - After a short-term adjustment, the technology-led market rally is expected to continue into Q4 2025, with Spring 2026 likely being a phase peak but not the peak for the entire year or the peak of the current comprehensive bull market [1] - The conditions for a comprehensive bull market are expected to become increasingly sufficient over time, indicating further depth in the bull market ahead [1]