管涛：国际储备货币体系加速多极化

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary system is experiencing a trend towards diversification, but the dominance of the US dollar remains significant, and the narrative of "de-dollarization" should not be overstated [1][11][19] Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share - As of the end of Q2, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell from 57.79% to 56.32%, marking a 1.47 percentage point decline and reaching a 30-year low [1] - The decline in the dollar's reserve share is primarily attributed to a 7.1% depreciation of the dollar index during the same period, which had a negative valuation effect [2][11] - If exchange rates remained stable, the dollar's reserve share would have only slightly decreased to 57.67%, indicating that the valuation effect significantly influenced the reported decline [2] Group 2: Euro and Other Currencies - The euro's reserve share increased from 20% to 21.13%, a rise of 1.13 percentage points, but this was largely due to a 9% appreciation against the dollar, which masked the actual change in reserve share [2][4] - The overall trend indicates a gradual shift towards a more multipolar currency reserve system, with the euro and other currencies gaining ground [11][19] Group 3: US Treasury Securities and Foreign Holdings - As of June, foreign official holdings of US long-term securities amounted to $67,395 billion, closely aligning with the IMF's reported global dollar reserve balance of $67,733 billion [5] - The breakdown of these holdings includes $38,191 billion in US Treasury bonds (56.7%), $5,078 billion in government agency bonds (7.5%), and $21,941 billion in US corporate stocks (32.6%) [5][10] - In Q2, foreign official net purchases of US long-term securities fell to $51 billion, a 94.4% decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a shift in investment strategy [9] Group 4: Gold Reserves and Asset Diversification - The global official gold reserves reached $38,642 billion, surpassing the value of US Treasury holdings for the first time, reflecting a growing interest in gold as a reserve asset [16] - The share of gold in global reserves has increased, while the dollar's share has decreased, suggesting a diversification of reserve assets among central banks [16][18] Group 5: International Capital Flows - The TIC report indicates that the net inflow of international capital into the US has significantly increased, with a year-to-date net inflow of $7,882 billion, a 142% increase year-on-year [12][15] - Despite the increase in private investment, official foreign capital inflows have decreased by 39.5%, highlighting a potential decline in the dollar's reserve currency status [15]