泉果基金赵诣： “困境反转”开启锂电池步入量价齐升新阶段

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy sector is showing signs of stabilization and recovery after nearly four years of deep adjustment, with significant increases in indices related to lithium batteries and electric vehicles, outperforming the broader market [1][2] Industry Overview - The current state of the renewable energy sector is characterized by "positive changes" and a "reversal of difficulties," with prices and profits at historical lows, indicating a shift in the core contradictions of the industry [2] - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing price increases, suggesting a reversal in supply and demand after four years of adjustment [2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with applications expanding beyond electric vehicles to include electric ships, robots, low-altitude economy, energy storage, sanitation vehicles, and heavy trucks, supporting a compound annual growth rate of 20% to 30% [2] - The industry is expected to face a supply-demand gap starting in 2024, leading to a sustained price increase cycle [2] Lithium Battery Industry Insights - The lithium battery industry is at a new starting point characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, driven by diverse demand [2] - Leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain are operating at full capacity, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] Solid-State Battery Developments - Solid-state batteries are viewed as the "future battery" of the renewable energy industry, with recent breakthroughs in technology significantly enhancing performance, including potential range improvements [3] - However, solid-state batteries have not yet achieved mass production and lack commercial competitiveness due to low lithium prices [3] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a clear framework based on company fundamentals and industry competition, emphasizing high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [4][5] - The current portfolio is balanced between growth sectors like AI and industries in a "reversal of difficulties" phase, such as renewable energy and military [5] - In AI investments, the focus is on efficiency-driven internet leaders, new application-driven companies, and cloud service providers, while military investments are driven by increasing domestic and international demand [5]