IMF发布最新世界经济展望报告预计—— 全球经济增速温和放缓

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report indicates that while the global economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, it is now experiencing signs of moderate slowdown, which is expected to persist long-term [1][2] - The report highlights that the initial strong economic activity was driven by short-term factors, and as these dissipate, global economic data is showing weakness [1][3] Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, global economic activities were robust, with inflation levels in the US and Asian economies being well-controlled [1] - The global economic growth rate is projected to decline from 3.6% at the end of 2024 to 2.6% at the end of this year, with forecasts of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 [1][2] Risks and Challenges - The report identifies ongoing downward risks to the global economy, including policy uncertainty, rising protectionism, and restrictive immigration policies, which could negatively impact consumption and investment [3] - The potential volatility in the artificial intelligence sector poses a risk to economic growth, with possible repercussions for technology stocks and overall financial market stability [3] Policy Recommendations - Policymakers are urged to establish clear and transparent trade policies to reduce uncertainty and support investment, while modernizing trade rules to adapt to the digital age [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal sustainability and suggests that countries should implement structural reforms to enhance resilience and growth prospects [4]